AA 3016 · LGA → MIA

took off 1:35 PM ET · expected to land 4:10 PM ET (scheduled 1:00 PM ET → 4:09 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±0 pts +14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MIA?

LIVE

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at LGA that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 1pm departures from LGA are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.28 in

MIA (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.84 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3016 · LGA → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?