AA 3203 · PHX → ELP

departs 8:48 AM MT · arrives 11:13 AM MT

Your aircraft is N750UW (A319), coming in as AA 1795 from DSM: landed 8:57 AM MT.

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?

99% chance · ±0 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ELP?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Gusts to 35 kt forecast at PHX that day

↑ This flight has been late 18% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into ELP at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts32 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.46 in

ELP (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling10,667 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3203 · PHX → ELP

Odds over time

How late will it get to ELP?