Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3203 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

AA 3203 · PHX → ELP

departs 8:55 AM MT · arrives 11:34 AM MT

Forecast issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ELP?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 18% of the time recently

↑ ELP is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling4,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

ELP (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3203 · PHX → ELP

Odds over time

How late will it get to ELP?