AA 3281 · CHS → DCA

departs 4:20 PM ET · arrives 5:58 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
24%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
23%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at DCA that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at CHS

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ DCA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

CHS (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.21 in

DCA (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.20 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3281 · CHS → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?