AM 423 · MIA → MEX

took off 3:16 PM ET · landed 4:04 PM CST (scheduled 2:13 PM ET → 3:36 PM CST)

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at MEX more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to MEX?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
✓
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 1,400 ft, 0.8 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MEX

↓ Arrivals into MEX at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.84 in

MEX (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AM 423 · MIA → MEX

Odds over time

How late did it get to MEX?