AM 425 · MIA → MEX

took off 6:20 AM ET · landed 7:08 AM CST (scheduled 6:08 AM ET → 7:30 AM CST)

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 16h after departure

Arrive at MEX more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −66 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to MEX?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,400 ft, 1.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ MIA is prone to delays

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from MIA are usually not late

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.84 in

MEX (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AM 425 · MIA → MEX

Odds over time

How late did it get to MEX?