Schedule: FAA flight plans.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 565 DELAYED: NOW PLANNED TO TAKE OFF 12:47 PM PT (22 MIN LATER THAN FIRST FILED)

Sunday, October 11 Today

AS 565 · LAS → SFO

departs 12:13 PM PT · arrives 1:52 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

59% chance · ±0 pts −22 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
40%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
34%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
23%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 37 kt, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at LAS that day

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ 12pm departures from LAS are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts37 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip1.40 in

SFO (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 565 · LAS → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?