Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 565 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 12 Tomorrow

AS 565 · LAS → SFO

departs 12:15 PM PT · arrives 1:52 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 30h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±6 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ 12pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 565 · LAS → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?