Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AVIANCA · FLIGHT AV 229 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 11 Tomorrow

AV 229 · FLL → BAQ

departs 9:52 PM ET · arrives 11:46 PM -05

Forecast issued Sat 6:00 PM ET · 28h before departure

Arrive at BAQ more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±2 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BAQ?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at FLL

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BAQ

↓ Arrivals into BAQ at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

FLL (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

BAQ (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AV 229 · FLL → BAQ

Odds over time

How late will it get to BAQ?