Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AVIANCA · FLIGHT AV 229 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 12

AV 229 · FLL → BAQ

departs 9:51 PM ET · arrives 11:45 PM -05

Forecast issued Sat 6:00 PM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at BAQ more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±2 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BAQ?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 9pm departures from FLL are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BAQ

Weather at each end

FLL (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BAQ (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AV 229 · FLL → BAQ

Odds over time

How late will it get to BAQ?