C5 4262 · IAD → HSV

took off 11:01 AM ET · expected to land 11:33 AM CT (scheduled 8:56 AM ET → 9:58 AM CT)

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at HSV more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to HSV?

LIVE

On time or early
0%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
97%
Over 2 hours late
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at IAD that day

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at HSV that day

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into HSV at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip2.66 in

HSV (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.17 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

C5 4262 · IAD → HSV

Odds over time

How late will it get to HSV?