C5 4262 · IAD → HSV

departs 8:56 AM ET · arrives 9:58 AM CT

Forecast issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at HSV more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±2 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HSV?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at IAD that day

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at HSV that day

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ HSV usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.24 in

HSV (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

C5 4262 · IAD → HSV

Odds over time

How late will it get to HSV?