C5 4326 · IAD → SYR

departs 12:51 PM ET · arrives 2:15 PM ET

Your aircraft is N16183 (E145), coming in as C5 4351 from HSV: landed 8:56 PM ET.

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at SYR more than 15 minutes late?

77% chance · ±0 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SYR?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 3.1 in of rain forecast at IAD that day

↑ This route's recent record

↑ IAD is busy at that time

↓ SYR usually runs smoothly

↓ Arrivals into SYR at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip3.05 in

SYR (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.21 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

C5 4326 · IAD → SYR

Odds over time

How late will it get to SYR?