Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4326
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
C5 4326 · IAD → SYR
departs 12:49 PM ET · arrives 2:11 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Mon 10/12 16%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 14%
Thu 10/15 15%
Fri 10/16 19%
Sat 10/17 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at SYR more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SYR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at SYR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SYR?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SYR
↑
This route's recent record
↑
IAD is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
SYR usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
SYR (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.23 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.