Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AIR CHINA · FLIGHT CA 981 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 11 Tomorrow

CA 981 · PEK → JFK

departs 7:35 PM CST · arrives 10:20 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 2:00 AM ET · 30h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

81% chance · ±2 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
18%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
27%
1–2 hours late
21%
Over 2 hours late
17%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 30 kt, cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at JFK that day

↑ JFK is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PEK

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

PEK (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts30 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.6 mi Precip0.84 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

CA 981 · PEK → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?