CA 982 · JFK → PEK

departs 2:12 AM ET · arrives 4:53 AM CST

Forecast issued Sat 2:00 AM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at PEK more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PEK?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ JFK is busy at that time

↑ 2am departures from JFK are often late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PEK

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts30 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.6 mi Precip0.84 in

PEK (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

CA 982 · JFK → PEK

Odds over time

How late will it get to PEK?