Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1554
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 11 Today
DL 1554 · IAH → MSP
departs 10:39 AM CT · arrives 1:21 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 6h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/12 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10am departures from IAH are often late
↑
IAH is busy at that time
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.