Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ETHIOPIAN · FLIGHT ET 3518 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 11

ET 3518 · MIA → LGG

departs 8:16 PM ET · arrives 10:53 AM CEST

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 69h before departure

Arrive at LGG more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGG?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↓ Arrivals into LGG at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGG (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

ET 3518 · MIA → LGG

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGG?