ET 501 · IAD → ADD

took off 12:00 PM ET · expected to land 6:45 AM EAT (scheduled 11:15 AM ET → 6:53 AM EAT)

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at ADD more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ADD?

LIVE

On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at IAD that day

↑ This route's recent record

↑ IAD is busy at that time

↓ 11am departures from IAD are usually not late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ADD

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip2.66 in

ADD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

ET 501 · IAD → ADD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ADD?