Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ETHIOPIAN · FLIGHT ET 501 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

ET 501 · IAD → ADD

departs 11:14 AM ET · arrives 7:16 AM EAT

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at ADD more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±2 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ADD?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ADD

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

ADD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

ET 501 · IAD → ADD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ADD?