F9 3076 · CLT → BWI

departs 11:57 AM ET · arrives 1:39 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

61% chance · ±0 pts +22 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
37%
15–30 min late
27%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 26 kt, cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.7 mi, 1.4 in of rain forecast at BWI that day

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at CLT that day

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↓ Arrivals into BWI at that hour are usually not late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.79 in

BWI (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip1.32 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 3076 · CLT → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?