G7 4407 · IAD → BUF

departs 5:41 PM ET · arrives 7:01 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±0 pts −16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to BUF?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 2.2 in of rain forecast at IAD that day

↑ 5pm departures from IAD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ BUF usually runs smoothly

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip2.24 in

BUF (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.09 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G7 4407 · IAD → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?