Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
GOJET · FLIGHT G7 4407
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
G7 4407 · IAD → BUF
departs 5:42 PM ET · arrives 7:02 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 36%
Mon 10/12 22%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 17%
Thu 10/15 26%
Fri 10/16 24%
Sat 10/17 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±2 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at BUF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to BUF?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from IAD are often late
↑
Gusts to 32 kt, cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at BUF that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
BUF usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
BUF (destination)
Gusts 33 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.22 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.