G7 4476 · IAD → BUF

took off 8:37 AM ET · landed 9:20 AM ET (scheduled 8:15 AM ET → 9:35 AM ET)

Forecast issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to BUF?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at IAD that day

↑ This route's recent record

↑ IAD is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into BUF at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip2.32 in

BUF (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.10 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G7 4476 · IAD → BUF

Odds over time

How late did it get to BUF?