G7 4486 · EWR → DCA

departs 3:40 PM ET · arrives 5:19 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

72% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
26%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
25%
Over 2 hours late
16%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 30 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at EWR that day

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at DCA that day

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts29 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip1.12 in

DCA (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.80 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G7 4486 · EWR → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?