KE 6 · LAS → ICN

took off 12:00 AM PT · expected to land 4:32 AM KST (scheduled 12:03 AM PT → 5:00 AM KST)

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at ICN more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ICN?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 38 kt, 1.0 in of rain forecast at LAS that day

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into ICN at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts35 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip1.88 in

ICN (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

KE 6 · LAS → ICN

Odds over time

How late will it get to ICN?