KL 635 · AMS → LAS

took off 5:23 PM CEST (scheduled 4:55 PM CEST → 7:16 PM PT)

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±7 pts −14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
42%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
25%
Over 2 hours late
11%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 37 kt, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at LAS that day

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at AMS

↓ KL's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

AMS (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts35 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip1.88 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

KL 635 · AMS → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?