KL 635 · AMS → LAS

departs 4:56 PM CEST · arrives 6:43 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±5 pts −15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at AMS

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

AMS (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

KL 635 · AMS → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?