LH 462 · FRA → MIA

took off 11:55 AM CEST (scheduled 10:45 AM CEST → 3:07 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ 10am departures from FRA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at FRA

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

FRA (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.84 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

LH 462 · FRA → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?