MQ 3550 · TLH → MIA

took off 11:15 AM ET · expected to land 12:23 PM ET (scheduled 11:13 AM ET → 12:45 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MIA?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,400 ft, 1.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ MIA is prone to delays

↑ MIA is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TLH

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

TLH (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.84 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3550 · TLH → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?