Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3837
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 11 Today
MQ 3837 · MIA → TLH
departs 11:56 AM ET · arrives 1:31 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at TLH more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TLH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at TLH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TLH?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,400 ft, 1.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day
↑
MIA is prone to delays
↑
11am departures from MIA are often late
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Arrivals into TLH at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.84 in
TLH (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 2,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.