Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4004
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 11 Today
MQ 4004 · CLT → HXD
departs 11:06 AM ET · arrives 12:15 AM CST
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at HXD more than 15 minutes late?
63%
chance · ±0 pts
+33 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
63%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.5d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HXD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +33 pts in 24h
+33 pts
63%
Yes 63%
No 37%
Leave CLT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +17 pts in 24h
+17 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at HXD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to HXD?
On time or early
36%
15–30 min late
41%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at CLT that day
↑
CLT is busy at that time
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at HXD
↓
Arrivals into HXD at that hour are usually not late
↓
HXD usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
CLT (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.57 in
HXD (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.