MQ 4180 · DCA → RDU

took off 9:40 AM ET · landed 10:32 AM ET (scheduled 8:23 AM ET → 9:37 AM ET)

Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to RDU?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
✓
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at DCA that day

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at RDU that day

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ Arrivals into RDU at that hour are usually not late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.97 in

RDU (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.06 mi Precip1.15 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4180 · DCA → RDU

Odds over time

How late did it get to RDU?