tailodds FORECAST

Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4228 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL ODDS

MQ 4228 · MSP → ORD

departs 5:59 PM CT · arrives 7:33 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 143h before departure

Typical odds Too early for a weather forecast — these are typical odds for this flight on a Sunday in October, from the weather this date has had in past years (the range shows how much they varied). They’ll switch to forecast-based odds about 3 days before departure.

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
50% chance · ±51 pts +0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE Low. This is mostly a starting point from history; weather forecasts haven't kicked in yet.
MOSTLY HISTORY WEATHER FORECASTS LIVE IN THE AIR 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Now 2d 1d 12h 6h Departs Lands

How late will it get to ORD?

  1. On time or early
    49%
  2. 15–30 min late
    18%
  3. 30 min–1 hour late
    12%
  4. 1–2 hours late
    8%
  5. Over 2 hours late
    9%
  6. Cancelled
    4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.