MQ 4322 · ORD → DCA

departs 6:02 AM CT · arrives 8:56 AM ET

Your aircraft is N244NN (E170), coming in as MQ 4125 from DCA: landed 11:07 PM CT.

Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at DCA that day

↑ Other factors

↑ MQ's recent on-time record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip1.29 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4322 · ORD → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?