OH 5075 · DCA → BUF

departs 1:03 PM ET · arrives 2:30 PM ET

Your aircraft is N545PB (CRJ7), coming in as JIA5282 from HPN: still at HPN, due off about 12:00 PM ET, 49 min after the scheduled departure (a tight turn, so this flight may leave late).

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

65% chance · ±0 pts +12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to BUF?

On time or early
35%
15–30 min late
28%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at DCA that day

↑ 1pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 38% of the time recently

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ BUF usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.71 in

BUF (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.11 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5075 · DCA → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?