OH 5641 · DCA → ECP

took off 12:35 PM ET · landed 1:35 PM CT (scheduled 11:26 AM ET → 12:57 PM CT)

Forecast issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at ECP more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±2 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to ECP?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
✓
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at DCA that day

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.96 in

ECP (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5641 · DCA → ECP

Odds over time

How late did it get to ECP?