Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4827
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 11
OO 4827 · SHD → CLT
departs 5:15 AM ET · arrives 6:35 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 AM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 7%
Sat 10/10 9%
Sun 10/11
Odds over time
Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
5%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave SHD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at CLT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to CLT?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at CLT that day
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi, 1.5 in of rain forecast at SHD that day
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into CLT at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
SHD (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 1.49 in
CLT (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1.33333 mi Precip 0.99 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.