QX 2096 · SFO → PAE

took off 11:55 AM PT · expected to land 1:35 PM PT (scheduled 11:20 AM PT → 1:36 PM PT)

Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at PAE more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PAE?

LIVE

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from SFO are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ SFO is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Arrivals into PAE at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PAE (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QX 2096 · SFO → PAE

Odds over time

How late will it get to PAE?