QX 2147 · SEA → BIL

took off 8:46 AM PT · landed 11:31 AM MT (scheduled 8:25 AM PT → 11:27 AM MT)

Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at BIL more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to BIL?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at BIL that day

↑ This route's recent record

↑ SEA is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Arrivals into BIL at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BIL (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.82 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QX 2147 · SEA → BIL

Odds over time

How late did it get to BIL?