Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2147
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
QX 2147 · SEA → BIL
departs 8:26 AM PT · arrives 11:29 AM MT
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Mon 10/12 15%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 10%
Thu 10/15 13%
Fri 10/16 14%
Sat 10/17 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at BIL more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BIL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at BIL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BIL?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
SEA is busy at that time
↑
QX's recent on-time record
↓
Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at SEA that day
↓
BIL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 5 kt
Ceiling 800 ft
Visibility 10+ mi
Precip none
BIL (destination)
Gusts 7 kt
Ceiling 100 ft
Visibility 10+ mi
Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.