QX 2419 · BZN → SEA

took off 3:10 PM MT · landed 3:40 PM PT (scheduled 1:53 PM MT → 2:51 PM PT)

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SEA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
✓
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi, 1.1 in of snow forecast at BZN that day

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ This route's recent record

↓ BZN usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

Weather at each end

BZN (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling120 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.89 in

SEA (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QX 2419 · BZN → SEA

Odds over time

How late did it get to SEA?