SY 1700 · SLC → MSP

took off 7:42 PM MT · expected to land 10:38 PM CT (scheduled 7:24 PM MT → 10:56 PM CT)

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MSP?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 40 kt, 0.4 in of rain forecast at SLC that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into MSP at that hour are often late

↓ SLC usually runs smoothly

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SLC (origin) Gusts40 kt Ceiling1,900 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.61 in

MSP (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

SY 1700 · SLC → MSP

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSP?