Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AVIANCA EL SALVADOR · FLIGHT TA 397 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 11 Today

TA 397 · MIA → MGA

departs 1:49 PM ET · arrives 2:28 PM CST

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at MGA more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MGA?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,400 ft, 1.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ 1pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ MIA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MGA

↓ Arrivals into MGA at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.85 in

MGA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

TA 397 · MIA → MGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MGA?