TP 231 · LIS → IAD

took off 12:00 PM WEST (scheduled 11:40 AM WEST → 3:43 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at IAD that day

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LIS

↓ IAD usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

LIS (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.7 mi Precip1.92 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

TP 231 · LIS → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?