UA 285 · EWR → ICN

took off 11:25 AM ET · expected to land 3:13 PM KST (scheduled 10:47 AM ET → 3:35 PM KST)

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at ICN more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ICN?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 30 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at EWR that day

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ 10am departures from EWR are often late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip1.75 in

ICN (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 285 · EWR → ICN

Odds over time

How late will it get to ICN?