WN 918 · BWI → MBJ

left the gate 8:18 AM ET · taxiing (scheduled 8:15 AM ET → 10:56 AM EST)

Your aircraft is N500WR (B738), coming in as WN 263 from ISP: landed 6:44 AM ET.

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at MBJ more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MBJ?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 26 kt, cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.7 mi, 1.4 in of rain forecast at BWI that day

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at MBJ that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 8am departures from BWI are usually not late

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip1.54 in

MBJ (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 918 · BWI → MBJ

Odds over time

How late will it get to MBJ?