Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 918
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
WN 918 · BWI → MBJ
departs 8:26 AM ET · arrives 10:53 AM EST
Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Mon 10/12 20%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 7%
Thu 10/15 7%
Fri 10/16 9%
Sat 10/17 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at MBJ more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MBJ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at MBJ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MBJ?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Other factors
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at MBJ that day
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Arrivals into MBJ at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
MBJ (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling — Visibility — Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.