WS 1016 · YYC → PHX

departs 12:15 PM MDT · arrives 2:28 PM MT

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

76% chance · ±0 pts +12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
23%
15–30 min late
35%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
27%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at YYC that day

↑ Gusts to 35 kt forecast at PHX that day

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ WS's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

YYC (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.02 in

PHX (destination) Gusts32 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.23 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WS 1016 · YYC → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?