Y4 740 · MEX → LAS

departs 11:55 AM CST · arrives 2:40 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

65% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
34%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
23%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 37 kt, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at LAS that day

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MEX

↓ Y4's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

MEX (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts37 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.87 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

Y4 740 · MEX → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?